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    1961—2014年东北三省热量资源变化特征

    Variation characteristics of thermal resources over the three northeastern provinces in China from 1961 to 2014

    • 摘要: 利用1961-2014年东北三省83个气象观测站逐日平均气温观测资料,采用气候倾向率、累积距平曲线、9 a滑动平均等统计方法分析了东北三省年平均气温、稳定通过0℃和10℃的积温、稳定通过0℃和10℃的起止日期及稳定通过0℃和10℃持续日数的变化特征。结果表明:近54 a东北三省热量资源整体呈增加的趋势,年平均气温的气候倾向率为0.29℃/10 a,稳定通过0℃和10℃积温的气候倾向率分别为60.10(℃·d)/10 a、60.00(℃·d)/10 a,稳定通过0℃和10℃持续日数的气候倾向率分别为2.3 d/10 a、1.9 d/10 a,稳定通过0℃和10℃起始日期的气候倾向率分别为-1.3 d/10 a、-0.8 d/10 a,稳定通过0℃和10℃终止日期的气候倾向率分别为1.0 d/10 a、1.1 d/10 a,东北三省全区热量资源呈北部地区比南部地区增加趋势显著的特点;2005年前后出现转折性变化,年平均气温、稳定通过0℃和10℃的积温、稳定通过0℃和10℃的持续日数均转为逐渐减少的趋势,稳定通过0℃和10℃的起始日期相对延后,终止日期相对提前,东北三省整体热量资源增加的趋势减缓,变化方向为由南向北发展。

       

      Abstract: Based on the daily average air temperature of 83 meteorological stations over the three northeastern provinces in China during 1961 to 2014,the variation characteristics of annual mean air temperature,accumulated temperatures steadily above 0℃and 10℃ and their beginning and ending dates as well as lasting days were investigated using the statistical analysis methods such as climate tendency,cumulative anomaly curve and 9-year moving average.The results show that the thermal resources in the three provinces in recent 54 years are increasing with tendency rates of 0.29℃/10 a,60.10 (℃·d)/10 a,60.00 (℃·d)/10 a for annual mean air temperature,accumulated temperatures steadily above 0℃and 10℃,respectively.The tendency rates for the lasting days,beginning and ending dates of temperatures steadily above 0℃and 10℃ are 2.3 d/10 a and 1.9 d/10 a,-1.3 d/10 a and -0.8 d/10 a,1.0 d/10 a and 1.1 d/10 a,respectively.In addition,the increasing trends for heat resources in the three provinces are more significant in the north than in the south of the studied area.However,around 2005,the annual mean air temperature,the cumulative temperatures steadily above 0℃ and 10℃ and their lasting days are all decreasing gradually,while the beginning dates of temperatures steadily above 0℃ and 10℃ are delayed and their ending dates are ahead of time relatively.Besides,the increasing tendencies of thermal resources in the three provinces are slowing down from the south to north.

       

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